Exploring Outliers: How Rare Events Shape My Thinking
Hi, I’m Sebastian, and this blog is both an indulgence and an exploration. It’s not for any one person, and yet, perhaps, for everyone. Over the past decade, I’ve worked across nearly every facet of the pharmaceutical industry, helping companies connect through Slate Mountains Capital and the Capital for Cures events. Whether these efforts have meaningfully shaped the future of healthcare or simply added another layer to its complexities is, of course, a matter of perspective. Here, I share my thoughts on the rare and unpredictable—not because they always matter, but because sometimes they do.
It is the unknown that defines our existence. We are constantly searching, not just for answers to our questions, but for new questions. We are explorers.
Captain Benjamin Sisko of Star Trek: Deep Space Nine
P05 takes its name from the 5th percentile in statistics. It also nods to the enigma of p-values, particularly p > 0.05—a measure as misinterpreted as it is calculated. Contrary to popular belief, p > 0.05 does not prove 'nothing happened'; it merely indicates insufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Yet, how often do we conflate absence of evidence with evidence of absence? Misused or misunderstood, the humble p-value reminds us that statistical significance is but one piece of the larger puzzle of scientific inquiry. Instead, it’s about embracing uncertainty and recognizing the transformative power of the unexpected.
Inspired by the works of Benoit Mandelbrot and Nassim Taleb, P05 reflects years spent examining the outsized influence of these statistical outliers on healthcare, biotech, and beyond.
This isn’t traditional analysis, nor is it an attempt to provide definitive answers. It’s about embracing the uncertainty of life’s extremes and recognizing the power of the unexpected.
What Drives P05?
P05 is rooted in three principles:
- Outliers Are Catalysts
Rare events aren’t distractions; they’re often the levers that move industries. Be it a regulatory curveball, a clinical breakthrough, or a catastrophic failure, these moments drive innovation and force change. - The Power of the Tails
Inspired by Benoit Mandelbrot’s fractals and Nassim Taleb’s black swans, P05 focuses on the data tails—the chaotic margins where hidden patterns emerge and predictable models collapse. - Strategy Through Extremes
Outliers aren’t just risks; they’re opportunities. By studying these statistical anomalies, I refine strategies for investment, partnerships, and long-term planning.
What You’ll Find Here
P05 is a space for exploring the edges of probability and possibility:
- Regulations and Markets
How today’s mundane policy tweaks become tomorrow’s game-changers. - Clinical Trial Surprises
From miraculous breakthroughs to headline-grabbing failures, the rare events that reshape drug development. - Data and Strategy
Recognizing patterns in extremes to inform better decisions in innovation and investment.
Why Write This?
This blog is my way of grappling with complexity, not to find answers but to uncover better questions. The improbable may never matter to most people, but for those of us who live at the edges of markets and data, it defines everything.
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